Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy
Mario F. Carillo, Tullio Jappelli
Abstract
Abstract We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused 600,000 deaths in Italy: 1.2% of the population. Going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of 6.5%, which dissipated within 3 years. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on regional economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions.
Topics & Concepts
PandemicEconomicsPublic health interventionsInfluenza pandemicPer capitaDevelopment economicsPopulation growthPublic healthCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)PopulationGeographyDemographyMedicinePathologyNursingSociologyDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)COVID-19 epidemiological studiesAgricultural risk and resilienceHIV/AIDS Impact and Responses