Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department
Rex Pui Kin Lam, Zonglin Dai, Eric H. Y. Lau, Carrie Yuen Ting Ip, Ho Ching Chan, Lingyun Zhao, Tat Chi Tsang, Matthew Sik Hon Tsui, Timothy H. Rainer
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores (EWSs) and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was sepsis (Sepsis-3 definition) within 48 h of ED presentation. Using c-statistics and the DeLong test, we compared 11 EWSs, including the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), Modified Early Warning Score, and Worthing Physiological Scoring System (WPS), etc., and three shock indices (the shock index [SI], modified shock index [MSI], and diastolic shock index [DSI]), with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) in predicting the primary outcome, intensive care unit admission, and mortality at different time points. RESULTS: 0.85-0.91), respectively. The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point. CONCLUSION: NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.