Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential
Yadong Wang, Delu Wang, Xunpeng Shi
Abstract
Wind power is crucial to China's and even the world's efforts to address climate change . However, the development pathways of China's wind power industry (WPI) remain unclear, hindering the holistic layout of China's wind power development plan . This study constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the economic benefits and technical potential of China's WPI under various uncertainties, thus informing sustainable development pathways. Multi-scenario simulation results show that: 1) Under the BAU scenario, the investment returns of wind power operators are not ideal. It is necessary for China's WPI to further improve the wind power generation efficiency or adopt a more effective market-oriented policy mechanism. 2) Compared with the BAU scenario, the economic benefits and technological potential under the technology changes scenario increase by an average of 120% and 42%, respectively, verifying that technological advancement is the most effective way to drive China's WPI sustainable development. 3) Although macro-environment fluctuations have a negative impact on economic benefits, they can stimulate the improvement of technological potential to a certain extent. The study allows an understanding of China's WPI long-term sustainable development pathways under various uncertainties, thus helping to provide a reference for policy-making institutions.