Pantropical tree rings show small effects of drought on stem growth
Pieter A. Zuidema, Peter Groenendijk, Mizanur Rahman, Valérie Trouet, Abrham Abiyu, Rodolfo Acuña-Soto, Eduardo Adenesky Filho, Raquel Alfaro‐Sánchez, Claudio Roberto Anholetto, José Roberto Vieira Aragão, Gabriel Assis-Pereira, Claudia C. Astudillo-Sánchez, Ana Carolina Maioli Campos Barbosa, Giovanna Battipaglia, Hans Beeckman, Paulo César Botosso, Nils Bourland, Achim Bräuning, Roel Brienen, Matthew Brookhouse, Supaporn Buajan, Brendan M. Buckley, J. Julio Camarero, Artemio Carrillo-Parra, Gregório Ceccantini, Librado R. Centeno-Erguera, Julián Cerano‐Paredes, Rosalinda Cervantes-Martínez, Wirong Chanthorn, Yajun Chen, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat Cintra, Eladio H. Cornejo-Oviedo, Otoniel Cortés-Cortés, Clayane Matos Costa, Camille Couralet, Doris B. Crispin‐DelaCruz, Rosanne D’Arrigo, Diego A. David, M. De Ridder, Jorge I. del Valle, Mário Dobner, Jean‐Louis Doucet, Oliver Dünisch, Brian J. Enquist, Karin Esemann‐Quadros, Gerardo Esquivel-Arriaga, Ze‐Xin Fan, Adeline Fayolle, Tatiele Anete Bergamo Fenilli, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Esther Fichtler, Patrick M. Finnegan, Cláudia Fontana, Kainana S. Francisco, Pei‐Li Fu, Franklin Galvão, Aster Gebrekirstos, Jorge A. Giraldo, Emanuel Gloor, Milena Godoy-Veiga, Daniela Granato‐Souza, Anthony Guerra, Kristof Haneca, Grant L. Harley, Ingo Heinrich, Gerhard Helle, Bruna Hornink, Wannes Hubau, Janet Gaby Inga Guillen, Mahmuda Islam, Yumei Jiang, J. Mark Kaib, Zakia Hassan Khamisi, Marcin Koprowski, Eva Layme, A. Joshua Leffler, Gauthier Ligot, Cláudio Sérgio Lisi, Neil J. Loader, Francisco de Almeida Lobo, Giuliano Maselli Locosselli, Tomaz Longhi-Santos, Lidio López, María I. López-Hernández, José Louzada, Rubén D. Manzanedo, Amanda Köche Marcon, Justin T. Maxwell, Omar N. Mendoza-Villa, Ítallo Romany Nunes Menezes, Mulugeta Mokria, Valdinez Ribeiro Montóia, Eddy Moors, Miyer Moreno, Miguel Ángel Muñiz-Castro, Cristina Nabais, Anuttara Nathalang, Justine Ngoma, Francisco de Carvalho Nogueira, Juliano Morales de Oliveira
Abstract
Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.