COVID-19 and the next influenza season
Benjamin D. Singer
Abstract
Even in non-pandemic years, influenza and other etiologies of pneumonia represent the eighth leading cause of death in the United States, and respiratory viruses are the most commonly identified pathogens among hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia ( 1 ). Epidemics of seasonal influenza occur on an annual basis. In the United States, the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic resulted in tens of millions of cases—the majority of which occurred before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic surged. Now, COVID-19, caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is an ongoing pandemic that has strained and, in some locales, overwhelmed healthcare systems. What can we expect as the COVID-19 pandemic evolves and seasonal influenza comes again? How can the epidemiology and biology of these infections inform our preparation strategies? The last influenza pandemic, caused by the then-novel H1N1pdm09 virus, began in the spring of 2009 and caused an estimated 61 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,500 deaths in the United States over …