Vulnerabilidade social e incidência de COVID-19 em uma metrópole brasileira
Virna Ribeiro Feitosa Cestari, Raquel Sampaio Florêncio, George Jó Bezerra Sousa, Thiago Santos Garcês, Thatiana Araújo Maranhão, Révia Ribeiro Castro, Luana Ibiapina Cordeiro, Lara Lídia Ventura Damasceno, Vera Lúcia Mendes de Paula Pessoa, Maria Lúcia Duarte Pereira, Thereza Maria Magalhães Moreira
Abstract
Vulnerability is a crucial factor in addressing COVID-19 as it can aggravate the disease. Thus, it should be considered in COVID-19 control and health prevention and promotion. This ecological study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 cases in a Brazilian metropolis and its association with social vulnerability indicators. Spatial scan analysis was used to identify COVID-19 clusters. The variables for identifying the vulnerability were inserted in a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to identify their spatial relationship with COVID-19 cases. The incidence of COVID-19 in Fortaleza was 74.52/10,000 inhabitants, with 3,554 reported cases and at least one case registered in each neighborhood. The spatial GWR showed a negative relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and demographic density (β=-0,0002) and a positive relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and the percentage of self-employed >18 years (β=1.40), and maximum per capita household income of the poorest fifth (β=0.04). The influence of vulnerability indicators on incidence showed areas that can be the target of public policies to impact the incidence of COVID-19.