Extrathyroidal Extension Prediction of Papillary Thyroid Cancer With Computed Tomography Based Radiomics Nomogram: A Multicenter Study

Abstract

Objectives: To develop and validate a Computed Tomography (CT) based radiomics nomogram for preoperative predicting of extrathyroidal extension (ETE) in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients. Methods: A total of 153 patients were randomly assigned to training and internal test sets (7:3). 46 patients were recruited to serve as an external test set. A radiologist with 8 years of experience segmented the images. Radiomics features were extracted from each image and Delta-radiomics features were calculated. Features were selected by using one way analysis of variance and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator in the training set. K-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, decision tree, linear-support vector machine (linear -SVM), gaussian-SVM, and polynomial-SVM were used to build 6 radiomics models. Next, a radiomics signature score (Rad-score) was constructed by using the linear combination of selected features weighted by their corresponding coefficients. Finally, a nomogram was constructed combining the clinical risk factors with Rad-scores. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curve were performed on the three sets to evaluate the nomogram's performance. Results: 4 radiomics features were selected. The six models showed the certain value of radiomics, with area under the curves (AUCs) from 0.642 to 0.701. The nomogram combining the Rad-score and clinical risk factors (radiologists' interpretation) showed good performance (internal test set: AUC 0.750; external test set: AUC 0.797). Calibration curve and DCA demonstrated good performance of the nomogram. Conclusion: Our radiomics nomogram incorporating the radiomics and radiologists' interpretation has utility in the identification of ETE in PTC patients.

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