An estimate of the potential economic impacts of climate change on Egypt’s agriculture: a multi-market model approach
Yosri Nasr Ahmed, Huang Delin, Christopher Belford, Victor Shaker, Naglaa Ahmed Mohamed Abdelrahaman
Abstract
Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Egypt, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries. Wherefore, this study assesses the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Egyptian agriculture using multimarket model. The results show that in the worst-case scenario (Lower yields and higher water demand), the agricultural production will decrease by a range of 10 to 18% for commodity. Besides, more agricultural labors could lose their jobs. It is also found that there will be a rise in both consumer prices (by 7% to 24%) and producer prices (by 12% to 22%) for all commodities. Furthermore, value-added and agricultural income will fall by 29% and 12% respectively, compared to baseline. In conclusion, it is necessary to put in place measures and effort to address these potential risks in the next few years. Accordingly, the study recommends the following: Firstly, efficient use of water resources to reduce the demand for irrigation water. Secondly, more drought, heat, and salinity adaptive varieties are required. The development of these varieties is critical to increasing productivity under more high-temperature conditions or to the maintenance of the same levels of current crop yields.