Arrhythmic sudden death survival prediction using deep learning analysis of scarring in the heart
Dan M. Popescu, Julie K. Shade, Changxin Lai, Konstantinos N. Aronis, David Ouyang, M. Vinayaga Moorthy, Nancy R. Cook, Daniel Lee, Alan H. Kadish, Christine M. Albert, Kathérine C. Wu, Mauro Maggioni, Natalia A. Trayanova
Abstract
Sudden cardiac death from arrhythmia is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Here, we develop a novel deep learning (DL) approach that blends neural networks and survival analysis to predict patient-specific survival curves from contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance images and clinical covariates for patients with ischemic heart disease. The DL-predicted survival curves offer accurate predictions at times up to 10 years and allow for estimation of uncertainty in predictions. The performance of this learning architecture was evaluated on multi-center internal validation data and tested on an independent test set, achieving concordance index of 0.83 and 0.74, and 10-year integrated Brier score of 0.12 and 0.14. We demonstrate that our DL approach with only raw cardiac images as input outperforms standard survival models constructed using clinical covariates. This technology has the potential to transform clinical decision-making by offering accurate and generalizable predictions of patient-specific survival probabilities of arrhythmic death over time.