Pupil Size Encodes Uncertainty during Exploration
Haoxue Fan, Taylor Denee Burke, Deshawn Chatman Sambrano, Emily Dial, Elizabeth A. Phelps, Samuel J. Gershman
Abstract
Exploration is an important part of decision making and is crucial to maximizing long-term rewards. Past work has shown that people use different forms of uncertainty to guide exploration. In this study, we investigate the role of the pupil-linked arousal system in uncertainty-guided exploration. We measured participants' (n = 48) pupil dilation while they performed a two-armed bandit task. Consistent with previous work, we found that people adopted a hybrid of directed, random, and undirected exploration, which are sensitive to relative uncertainty, total uncertainty, and value difference between options, respectively. We also found a positive correlation between pupil size and total uncertainty. Furthermore, augmenting the choice model with subject-specific total uncertainty estimates decoded from the pupil size improved predictions of held-out choices, suggesting that people used the uncertainty estimate encoded in pupil size to decide which option to explore. Together, the data shed light on the computations underlying uncertainty-driven exploration. Under the assumption that pupil size reflects locus coeruleus-norepinephrine neuromodulatory activity, these results also extend the theory of the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine function in exploration, highlighting its selective role in driving uncertainty-guided random exploration.