Tree species hyperdominance and rarity in the South American Cerrado
Facundo Alvarez, Ben Hur Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Hans ter Steege, Oliver L. Phillips, R. Brandão, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi, José Roberto Rodrigues Pinto, Frederico Augusto Guimarães Guilherme, Marcelo Leandro Bueno, Sabrina do Couto de Miranda, Bruno Machado Teles Walter, Cássia Beatriz Rodrigues Munhoz, Edson de Souza Lima, F. de G. Aquino, Henrique Augusto Mews, José Felipe Ribeiro, Maria Antônia Carniello, Mercedes Bustamante, Ricardo Flores Haidar, Paulo S. Morandi, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Zenésio Finger, Eder Carvalho das Neves, Fernando Elias, Imma Oliveras Menor, Ana Lyz Machado Parreira, Eddie Lenza de Oliveira, Eduardo Q. Marques, Réginal Exavier, Carla Heloísa Luz de Oliveira, Nayane Cristina Candida dos Santos Prestes, Simone Matias Reis, Wesley Jonatar Alves da Cruz, Ted R. Feldpausch
Abstract
The South American Cerrado, the largest savanna of the Americas and the world's most tree-biodiverse, is critically endangered, with just 8% protected and more than half deforested. However, the extent of its tree diversity and abundance remains poorly quantified. Using a unique biome-wide eco-floristic dataset with 222 one-hectare plots, we estimate the Cerrado has ~1605 tree species and has extreme hyperdominance, with fewer than 2% (30 species) accounting for half of all trees. A single family, Vochysiaceae, represents 17% of all trees, and the most abundant species, Qualea parviflora, accounts for 1 in 14 trees. In contrast, 63% of the species are rare, with fewer than 100 trees across all plots. Remote sensing and spatial modelling suggest the Cerrado has lost 24 billion trees since 1985, equivalent to three times the Earth's human population. We estimate up to 800 tree species may remain undetected in Cerrado ecosystems and could face extinction in a few decades due to deforestation. This hyperdominance parallels patterns in Amazonian forests and highlights risks both biomes face for species loss due to fragmentation, deforestation, and land-use change. Our findings highlight the Cerrado's critical but undervalued role in global biodiversity, its vulnerabilities, and the urgent need for conservation to avoid irreversible species and biome loss.