The impact of extreme climate on tourism sector international stock markets: A quantile and time-frequency perspective
Ran Wu, Hongjun Zeng, Mohammad Zoynul Abedin, Abdullahi D. Ahmed
Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the heterogeneous effects of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on the tourism Sector of International Stock Markets under varying climate conditions and time-frequency using the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) method, the quantile Granger-causality test and Wavelet Coherence method. The study’s findings reveal that: (1) Pacific Rim countries exhibited greater sensitivity to SOI fluctuations, while developed markets demonstrated greater resilience; (2) the quantile Granger-causality test revealed a strong causal relationship between the SOI and tourism indices, particularly during periods of moderate market fluctuations (at the 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles); (3) since 2022, climate sensitivity of tourism markets has intensified, especially in the mid-frequency domain; and (4) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the results remained robust, suggesting that the influence of extreme climate on the tourism market persisted. These findings not only enhance our understanding of the effects of extreme seasonal phenomena on the tourism industries of different countries but also provide insights for the tourism market’s adaptation to climate change.