The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Detlef P. van Vuuren, Brian C. O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Govindasamy Bala, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh M. N. Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew D. Jones, Andrew D. King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camilla Mathison, Jason Lowe, Luciana F. Prado, Qiang Zhang, S. J. Rose, Alex C. Ruane, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna A. Sörensson, P. Swapna, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi E. Vaughan, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, Naomi E. Vaughan, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Marco Zecchetto, Tilo Ziehn
Abstract
Abstract. Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process, initiated in June 2023, has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy action), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the earth system uncertainty space. The proposal also includes plans for long-term extensions (up to 2500 AD) to study slow climate change-related processes, and (ir)reversibility. This proposal forms the basis for further implementation of the framework in terms of the derivation of climate forcing pathways for use by earth system models and additional variants for adaptation and mitigation studies.