Outdoor Absolute Humidity Predicts the Start of Norovirus GII Epidemics
Thomas Beck-Friis, Nicklas Sundell, Lars Gustavsson, Magnus Lindh, Johan Westin, Lars‐Magnus Andersson
Abstract
Viral gastroenteritis causes considerable morbidity, especially in vulnerable groups such as the elderly and chronically ill. Predicting the beginning of seasonal epidemics is important for the health care system to withstand increasing demands. In this paper we studied the association of outdoor climate factors on the detection rates of gastrointestinal viruses and the association between these factors and the onset of annual norovirus epidemics. Declining absolute humidity preceded the increase in diagnosed norovirus GII cases by approximately 1 week. These findings contribute to the understanding of norovirus epidemiology and allow health care services to install timely preventive measures and can help the public avoid transmission.