A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk
Jahirul Islam, Francesca D. Frentiu, Gregor J. Devine, Hilary Bambrick, Wenbiao Hu
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate change is predicted to profoundly impact dengue transmission risk, yet a thorough review of evidence is necessary to refine understanding of climate scenarios, projection periods, spatial resolutions, and modeling approaches. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a state-of-the-science review to comprehensively understand long-term dengue risk predictions under climate change, identify research gaps, and provide evidence-based guidelines for future studies. METHODS: search strategy, predefined eligibility criteria, and systematic data extraction procedures were implemented to identify and evaluate studies. RESULTS: ) did not report model evaluation metrics. DISCUSSION: We identified the urgent need to strengthen dengue databases, use finer spatial resolutions to integrate big data, and incorporate potential socioenvironmental factors such as human movement, vegetation, microclimate, and vector control efficacy in modeling. Utilizing appropriate spatiotemporal models and validation techniques will be crucial for developing functional climate-driven early warning systems for dengue fever. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14463.