Quantitative Approach To Assess Influenza A Virus Fitness and Transmission in Guinea Pigs
Shamika Danzy, Anice C. Lowen, John Steel
Abstract
Influenza pandemics occur when an IAV from non-human hosts enters the human population and adapts to give rise to a lineage capable of sustained transmission among humans. Despite recurring zoonotic infections involving avian or swine adapted IAVs, influenza pandemics occur infrequently because IAVs typically exhibit low fitness in a new host species. Anticipating when a zoonosis might lead to a pandemic is both critical for public health preparedness and extremely challenging. The approach to characterizing IAVs reported here is designed to aid risk assessment efforts by generating rigorous and quantitative data on viral phenotypes relevant for emergence. Our data suggest that the ability to replicate to high titers and transmit efficiently irrespective of initial dose are key characteristics distinguishing IAVs that have established sustained circulation in the human population from IAVs that circulate in non-human mammalian hosts.