Vegetation refugia can inform climate‐adaptive land management under global warming
James H. Thorne, Melanie Gogol‐Prokurat, Sandra E. Hill, Dana Walsh, Ryan Boynton, Hyeyeong Choe
Abstract
Natural resource managers need information about the risks associated with climate change to provide guidance on where to implement various management practices on natural lands. The spatial variation of projected impacts within a vegetation type can be used to target climate‐adaptive management actions because different locations will be exposed to different levels of climatic stress. Vegetation refugia are areas that retain non‐stressful climate conditions under future climates. Consensus vegetation refugia – areas retaining suitable climates under both wetter and drier future projections – represent only 14.6% of California's natural vegetation. One state and one federal government agency have incorporated vegetation refugia maps into conservation planning for 522 vertebrate species and for post‐wildfire reforestation. Monitoring how vegetation responds to management actions at sites within vegetation refugia can improve the conservation of plants subjected to a changing climate.