Integrated assessment of flood and drought hazards for current and future climate in a tributary of the Mekong river basin
Jessica Penny, Dibesh Khadka, Mukand S. Babel, Priscila Barros Ramalho Alves, Slobodan Djordjević, Albert Chen, Ho Huu Loc
Abstract
Abstract Projecting floods and droughts characteristics under climate change is important to formulate an integrative management plan and enhance resiliency of society. However, studies that provide the integration of floods-drought hazards are scarce within literature. This study assessed flood and drought hazards separately and together for future climate in the Mun River basin, a tributary of the Mekong river. A non-modelling and multi-variate approach was used to assess flood and drought hazard respectively. Climate model ensemble suggests that the area under ‘high’ and ‘very high’ drought hazard level will increase from 27% and 4% during baseline period (1981–2010) to 43% and 37%, respectively, during near-future period (2021–2050). Similarly, an increase in ‘high’ and ‘very high’ flood hazard from 11% and 22% during baseline period to 16% and 24% during near-future period is projected. When both hazards are considered together, the total hazard is projected to increase by 155% in the near-future period. 76% of the catchment during the near future period will have combined hazard level from ‘medium’ to ‘very high’ compared to the 30% during the baseline period. The research presents a grim outlook on for the basin, with the area at risk from both hydro-meteorological hazards.