High Sensitivity and Specificity of Dormitory-Level Wastewater Surveillance for COVID-19 during Fall Semester 2020 at Syracuse University, New York
Alex Godinez, Dustin Hill, Bryan Dandaraw, Hyatt Green, Pruthvi Kilaru, Frank A. Middleton, Sythong Run, Brittany Kmush, David A. Larsen
Abstract
A residential building's wastewater presents a potential non-invasive method of surveilling numerous infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2. We analyzed wastewater from 16 different residential locations at Syracuse University (Syracuse, NY, USA) during fall semester 2020, testing for SARS-CoV-2 RNA twice weekly and compared the presence of clinical COVID-19 cases to detection of the viral RNA in wastewater. The sensitivity of wastewater surveillance to correctly identify dormitories with a case of COVID-19 ranged from 95% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 76-100%) on the same day as the case was diagnosed to 73% (95% CI = 53-92%), with 7 days lead time of wastewater. The positive predictive value ranged from 20% (95% CI = 13-30%) on the same day as the case was diagnosed to 50% (95% CI = 40-60%) with 7 days lead time. The specificity of wastewater surveillance to correctly identify dormitories without a case of COVID-19 ranged from 60% (95% CI = 52-67%) on the day of the wastewater sample to 67% (95% CI = 58-74%) with 7 days lead time. The negative predictive value ranged from 99% (95% CI = 95-100%) on the day of the wastewater sample to 84% (95% CI = 77-91%) with 7 days lead time. Wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 at the building level is highly accurate in determining if residents have a COVID-19 infection. Particular benefit is derived from negative wastewater results that can confirm a building is COVID-19 free.