Urban Rail Transportation and SARS-Cov-2 Infections: An Ecological Study in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area
Mílton Severo, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Raquel Lucas, Teresa Leão, Henrique Barros
Abstract
Introduction: The large number of passengers, limited space and shared surfaces can transform public transportation into a hub of epidemic spread. This study was conducted to investigate whether proximity to railway stations, a proxy for utilization, was associated with higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection across small-areas of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Portugal). Methods: The number of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed infections from March 2 until July 5, 2020 at the parish-level was obtained from the National Epidemiological Surveillance System. A Geographic Information System was used to estimate proximity to railway stations of the six railway lines operating in the area. A quasi- Poisson generalized linear regression model was fitted to estimate the relative risks (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Between May 2 and July 5, 2020, there were a total of 17,168 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, with wide disparities between parishes. Overall, parishes near any of the railway stations of the Sintra line presented significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 infection rates ( RR = 1.42, 95%CI 1.16, 1.75) compared to parishes located farther away from railway stations, while the opposite was observed for parishes near other railway stations ( Sado and Fertagus lines), where infection rates were significantly lower than those observed in parishes located farther away from railway stations ( RR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.50, 0.87). The associations varied according to the stage of the epidemic and to the mitigation measures enforced. Regression results also revealed an increasing influence of socioeconomic deprivation on SARS-CoV-2 infections. Conclusions: No consistent association between proximity to railway stations and SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in the most affected metropolitan area of Portugal was observed, suggesting that other factors (e.g., socioeconomic deprivation) may play a more prominent role in the epidemic dynamics.