Machine Learning Approach for Predictive Maintenance of the Electrical Submersible Pumps (ESPs)
Ramez Abdalla, Hanin Samara, Nelson Perozo, Carlos Paz Carvajal, Philip Jaeger
Abstract
Electrical submersible pumps (ESPs) are considered the second-most widely used artificial lift method in the petroleum industry. As with any pumping artificial lift method, ESPs exhibit failures. The maintenance of ESPs expends a lot of resources, and manpower and is usually triggered and accompanied by the reactive process monitoring of multivariate sensor data. This paper presents a methodology to deploy the principal component analysis and extreme gradient boosting trees (XGBoosting) in predictive maintenance in order to analyze real-time sensor data to predict failures in ESPs. The system contributes to an efficiency increase by reducing the time required to dismantle the pumping system, inspect it, and perform failure analysis. This objective is achieved by applying the principal component analysis as an unsupervised technique; then, its output is pipelined with an XGBoosting model for further prediction of the system status. In comparison to traditional approaches that have been utilized for the diagnosis of ESPs, the proposed model is able to identify deeper functional relationships and longer-term trends inferred from historical data. The novel workflow with the predictive model can provide signals 7 days before the actual failure event, with an F1-score more than 0.71 on the test set. Increasing production efficiencies through the proactive identification of failure events and the avoidance of deferment losses can be accomplished by means of the real-time alarming system presented in this work.