Predicting the Potential Distribution of Cheirotonus jansoni (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Climate Change
Yali Yu, Zhiqiang Li
Abstract
Cheirotonus jansoni (Jordan, 1898), a beetle species of ecological and ornamental significance, is predominantly found in southern China. With limited dispersal ability, it is classified as a Class 2 protected species in China. In this study, the widely employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ensemble Biomod2 model were applied to simulate C. jansoni habitat suitability in China under current environmental conditions based on available distribution data and multiple environmental variables. The optimized MaxEnt model demonstrated improved accuracy and robust predictive capabilities, making it the preferred choice for simulating dynamic changes in potentially suitable habitats for C. jansoni under future climate scenarios. Protection gaps were further identified through analyses of the overlap between nature reserves and highly suitable areas for C. jansoni. The established models indicated that this species primarily resides in southeastern mountainous regions of China below 2000 m, with a preferred altitude of 1000–2000 m. Future climate scenarios suggest a reduction in the overall suitable habitat for C. jansoni with an increase in temperature, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced conservation efforts for this beetle species.