Structural determinants of food price inflation and food security implications: evidence from GCC panel data
Morouj Dardeer, Rozina Shaheen
Abstract
This study investigates the structural determinants of food security in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using balanced panel data from 2000 to 2023. Focusing on food price inflation as a key economic dimension of food security, the analysis employs fixed effects, random effects, and robustness estimators (GMM and Driscoll–Kraay) to examine how macroeconomic, agricultural, and demographic factors shape food price dynamics. The results show that food imports, food exports, urban population growth, and the prevalence of undernourishment significantly contribute to higher food prices, reflecting the region’s heavy reliance on global markets and the pressures of rapid urbanization. Conversely, agricultural productivity and employment in agriculture exert a stabilizing effect, highlighting the potential benefits of enhancing domestic production capacity. The Hausman test supports the fixed effects model, emphasizing the importance of country-specific structural characteristics and institutional conditions in determining food security outcomes. Overall, the findings indicate that improving food security in the GCC requires targeted national strategies, investing in sustainable agriculture, strengthening food logistics and social protection systems, and reducing dependence on imported food while aligning with broader regional initiatives such as Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE Food Security Strategy 2051 to build resilient and inclusive food systems.