Epidemics on the move: Climate change and infectious disease

Abstract

Understanding the factors that govern the dynamics and distribution of animal and plant parasites and pathogens has taken on a new urgency in the face of global climate change. Many disease-causing organisms are strongly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall and humidity, which are in turn influenced by climate change. For this reason it is widely expected that climate change will affect infectious disease patterns. Much of the early research on climate change and infectious disease emphasized the potential for increases in disease risk under future climate scenarios, with range expansion or changes in seasonality anticipated to lead to net increases in transmission This research led to a sense that a "warmer world would be a sicker world." Recent research has provided a more nuanced perspective, highlighting the potential for a "two-tailed" response, meaning that shifts in climate could drive conditions towards the optimum for transmission in some areas while pushing conditions away from the optimum in others Indeed, if parasites and pathogens follow the patterns predicted for other taxa, it is reasonable to expect that some diseases will adapt to changing environmental conditions and potentially increase in prevalence, whereas others will suffer negative consequences leading to range contractions and even local extinctions. Yet researchers face the considerable challenge of determining which outcome will apply to which diseases, and where and when predicted changes may occur.

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