Modelling the Dynamic Effect of Environmental Pollution on Coastal Tourism

Abstract

The sustainability and development of coastal tourism is a subject of serious debate and discussions among researchers. Over stressed resources can lead to the degradation of the resources, which may result to eventual closure of the resource. So, meeting the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targeted at 2030 is very much relevant. This has motivated the study of the novel tourist-resources-pollution/contamination dynamic model of environment, especially in coastal areas. The increasing number of tourists to destinations of attraction has significantly impacted the environment negatively via pollution/contamination from visitors activities. To gain an understanding of the dynamical relationship between tourists, resources, and pollution/contamination, a novel mathematical model was developed to assess the dynamic effect of environmental pollution on coastal tourism in Nigeria. The dynamics of the proposed model, for this study, are divided into three compartments: Visitors (V), Resources (R), and Contaminant (C). The pollution/contamination threshold number Cp without controls is computed. The local and global stability for the Contamination-Free Equilibrium (CFE) and Visitor-Resource-Contamination Equilibrium Point (VRCE) were analyzed using the associated contamination threshold number Cp. The dynamic model developed was applied to international tourist arrivals in Nigeria. The result of the analysis showed that the pollution/contamination free equilibrium of the model is feasible if the pollution/contamination threshold number Cp, which represents the average number of secondary pollution produced in the area is less than unity i.e Cp<1 otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is the visitors-resources-pollution/contamination when Cp>1. A further result from the analysis identified that the rate of degradation θ, the carrying capacity K if not properly managed, and the contamination rate c1 all can increase the rate of pollution in the environment, while an increase in the clearance rate c2 can reduce the level of pollution. It is therefore recommended that restrictions should be put in place to make sure carrying capacity of a tourist attraction is not exceeded, and the neatness of the environment should be ensured. More so, authorities should ensure high level of sanitation before, during and after every tourist activities around the coastal tourism facilities to ensure sustainability with the aim of meeting the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targeted for 2030.

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