Protection provided by vaccination, booster doses and previous infection against covid-19 infection, hospitalisation or death over time in Czechia
Luděk Berec, Martin Šmíd, Lenka Přibylová, Ondřej Májek, Tomáš Pavlík, Jiří Jarkovský, Milan Zajíček, Jakub Weiner, Tamara Barusová, Ján Trnka
Abstract
Studies demonstrating the waning of post-vaccination and post-infection immunity against covid-19 generally analyzed a limited range of vaccines or subsets of populations. Using Czech national health data from the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic till November 20, 2021 we estimated the risks of reinfection, breakthrough infection, hospitalization and death by a Cox regression adjusted for sex, age, vaccine type and vaccination status. Vaccine effectiveness against infection declined from 87% at 0-2 months after the second dose to 53% at 7-8 months for BNT162b2 vaccine, from 90% at 0-2 months to 65% at 7-8 months for mRNA-1273, and from 83% at 0-2 months to 55% at 5-6 months for the ChAdOx1-S. Effectiveness against hospitalization and deaths declined by about 15% and 10%, respectively, during the first 6-8 months. Boosters (third dose) returned the protection to the levels observed shortly after dose 2. In unvaccinated, previously infected individuals the protection against infection declined from 97% after 2 months to 72% at 18 months. Our results confirm the waning of vaccination-induced immunity against infection and a smaller decline in the protection against hospitalization and death. Boosting restores the original vaccine effectiveness. Post-infection immunity also decreases over time.