Complete blood count might help to identify subjects with high probability of testing positive to SARS-CoV-2
Vincenzo Formica, Marilena Minieri, Sergio Bernardini, Marco Ciotti, Cartesio D’Agostini, Mario Roselli, Massimo Andreoni, Maria Cristina Morelli, Giusy Parisi, Massimo Federici, Carla Paganelli, Jacopo M. Legramante
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has dramatically increased the workload for health systems and a consequent need to optimise resources has arisen, including the selection of patients for swab tests. We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and undergoing swab tests for SARS-CoV-2. Complete blood counts (CBCs) were analysed looking for predictors of test positivity. Eight significant predictors were identified and used to build a 'complete' CBC score with a discriminatory power for COVID-19 diagnosis of AUC 92% (p<0.0001). When looking at the weight of individual variables, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), age, platelets and eosinophils (MAPE: MCV ≤90 fL, 65 points; age ≥45 years, 100 points; platelets ≤180×103/μL, 73 points; eosinophils <0.01/μL, 94 points) gave the highest contribution and were used to build a 'simplified' MAPE score with a discriminatory power of AUC 88%. By setting the cut-off MAPE score at ≥173 points, sensitivity and specificity for COVID-19 diagnosis were 83% and 82%, respectively, and the actual test positivity rate was 60% as compared to 6% of patients with MAPE score <173 points (odds ratio 23.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.1-58.3, p-value <0.0001). In conclusion, CBC-based scores have potential for optimising the SARS-CoV-2 testing process: if these findings are confirmed in the future, swab tests may be waived for subjects with low score and uncertain symptoms, while they may be considered for asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic patients with high scores.