The role of weather conditions in COVID-19 transmission: A study of a global panel of 1236 regions
Chen Zhang, Hua Liao, Eric Strobl, Hui Li, Ru Li, Steen Solvang Jensen, Ying Zhang
Abstract
It is believed that weather conditions such as temperature and humidity have effects on COVID-19 transmission. However, these effects are not clear due to the limited observations and difficulties in separating impact of social distancing. COVID-19 data and social-economic features of 1236 regions in the world (1112 regions at the provincial level and 124 countries with the small land area) were collected. Large-scale satellite data was combined with these data with a regression analysis model to explore the effects of temperature and relative humidity on COVID-19 spreading, as well as the possible transmission risk by seasonal cycles. The result shows that temperature and relative humidity are negatively correlated with COVID-19 transmission throughout the world. Government intervention (e.g. lockdown policies) and lower population movement contributed to decrease the new daily case ratio. Weather conditions are not the decisive factor in COVID-19 transmission, in that government intervention as well as public awareness, could contribute to the mitigation of the spreading of the virus. So, it deserves a dynamic government policy to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in winter.