On redshift evolution and negative dark energy density in Pantheon + Supernovae

Abstract

Abstract Within the Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker (FLRW) framework, the Hubble constant $$H_0$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> is an integration constant. Thus, consistency of the model demands observational constancy of $$H_0$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> . We demonstrate redshift evolution of best fit $$\Lambda $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Λ</mml:mi> </mml:math> CDM parameters $$(H_0, \Omega _{m})$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>(</mml:mo> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>,</mml:mo> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>Ω</mml:mi> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>)</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> in Pantheon+ supernove (SNe). Redshift evolution of best fit cosmological parameters is a prerequisite to finding a statistically significant evolution as well as identifying alternative models that are competitive with $$\Lambda $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Λ</mml:mi> </mml:math> CDM in a Bayesian model comparison. To assess statistical significance, we employ three different methods: (i) Bayesian model comparison, (ii) mock simulations and (iii) profile distributions. The first shows a marginal preference for the vanilla $$\Lambda $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Λ</mml:mi> </mml:math> CDM model over an ad hoc model with 3 additional parameters and an unphysical jump in cosmological parameters at $$z=1$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>z</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> . From mock simulations, we estimate the statistical significance of redshift evolution of best fit parameters and negative dark energy density ( $$\Omega _m &gt; 1$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>Ω</mml:mi> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ) to be in the $$1-2 \sigma $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> <mml:mo>-</mml:mo> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> range, depending on the criteria employed. Importantly, in direct comparison to the same analysis with the earlier Pantheon sample we find that statistical significance of redshift evolution of best fit parameters has increased, as expected for a physical effect. Our profile distribution analysis demonstrates a shift in $$(H_0, \Omega _m)$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>(</mml:mo> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>,</mml:mo> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>Ω</mml:mi> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>)</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> in excess of $$95\%$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>95</mml:mn> <mml:mo>%</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> confidence level for SNe with redshifts $$z &gt; 1$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>z</mml:mi> <mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> and also shows that a degeneracy in MCMC posteriors is not equivalent to a curve of constant $$\chi ^2$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msup> <mml:mi>χ</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msup> </mml:math> . Our findings can be interpreted as a statistical fluctuation or unexplored systematics in Pantheon+ or $$\Lambda $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>Λ</mml:mi> </mml:math> CDM model breakdown. The first two possibilities are disfavoured by similar trends in independent probes.

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