Estimated public health benefits of a low-emission zone in Malmö, Sweden
Erin Flanagan, Ebba Malmqvist, Susanna Gustafsson, Anna Oudin
Abstract
Air pollution is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Low-emission zones (LEZ) have been increasingly implemented in cities throughout Europe as a measure to reduce the adverse health effects and premature deaths associated with traffic-related air pollution. In the present study, a health impact analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of a hypothetical LEZ on mortality and morbidity in Malmö, Sweden. Baseline health statistics were gathered from health registers and applied to each resident according to individual-level data on age and/or sex. Concentration-response parameters were derived from current epidemiological literature, specifically meta-analyses. A Gaussian dispersion model (AERMOD) combined with a detailed emission database was used to calculate NO2 emissions from traffic, which could be applied on an individual-level using data on each person's residential coordinates. The adjusted exposure scenario replaced all vehicles on municipal roads having Euro 5 or lower emission standards with Euro 6 equivalents. This LEZ would, on average, decrease NO2 concentrations by 13.4%, preventing an estimated 9–26 deaths in Malmö each year. Additionally, 12 respiratory disease hospitalizations, 8 childhood asthma cases, and 9 cases of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were estimated to be avoided annually. These results suggest that LEZs can effectively improve air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and safeguard public health.