Overlooked climate risks in the ongoing renewable energy transitions
Carlo Aall, Miguel Chang, Thomas Elliot, Tara Botnen Holm, Søren Løkke, Alessandro Mati, Stephanie Mayer, Iva Ridjan Skov
Abstract
This paper critically examines the current framing of climate risk in scientific and policy discussions, as well as energy modelling, concerning the transition to renewable energy systems. Applying the latest IPCC climate risk framework (hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities), we argue that prevailing discourse oversimplifies risk by primarily focusing on the hazard aspects of climate change while placing too little emphasis on the significant role of societal changes, namely the exposure and vulnerability dimensions. Furthermore, analyses often concentrate on singular climate events, overlooking the potentially critical impacts of compound climate events – simultaneous or sequential events at different or the same locations. Emerging research indicates these compound events are particularly relevant for renewable energy systems. This perspective paper advocates for a revised agenda integrating the full IPCC climate risk framework into the renewable energy transition. It stresses the necessity of investigating how this transition might alter vulnerabilities and exposures. These alterations, coupled with the increasing likelihood of compound climate events, could lead to a climate risk profile for renewable energy systems exceeding that of fossil-based systems, unless robust risk-reducing strategies are implemented. • Energy transition discourses overlook societal role in climate risk. • Compound climate events are key for understanding climate risk for renewables. • Need to integrate IPCC risk framework in renewable energy transition discourses. • Climate hazards' impacts must be factored into energy system analyses of all sectors.