Disproportionate policy dynamics in crisis and uncertainty: an international comparative analysis of policy responses to COVID-19
Saahir Shafi, Daniel J. Mallinson
Abstract
Differences in policy responses have enabled some nations to successfully mitigate COVID-19 cases and deaths while others continue to struggle. In their efforts to contain the virus, nations have pursued disparate policy responses with policy stringency ranging from policy over-reactions to under-reactions. As nations look towards recovery, a retroactive evaluation of the relationship between policy responses and outcomes can provide much-needed insight on disparities in pandemic-related outcomes. Using time series data for 2020, we employ pooled panel linear regression to analyze the relationship between policy choices and COVID-19 outcomes. This study uses stringency measures of government policy responses across three dimensions—containment, economic, and health policies—to assess the impact of these policies on COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our results indicate that increased income support and debt relief policies are associated with a reduction in the rate of COVID-19 deaths that lasts up to four weeks, while broad policy interventions are associated with a short-term reduction in the rate of deaths.