One-year predictions of delayed reward discounting in the adolescent brain cognitive development study.
Max M. Owens, Sage Hahn, Nicholas Allgaier, James MacKillop, Matthew D. Albaugh, Dekang Yuan, Anthony Juliano, Alexandra Potter, Hugh Garavan
Abstract
= 4,042) to build machine learning models to predict DRD at the first follow-up visit, 1 year later. In separate machine learning models, we tested elastic net regression, random forest regression, light gradient boosting regression, and support vector regression. In five-fold cross-validation on the training set, models using an array of questionnaire/task variables were able to predict DRD, with these findings generalizing to a held-out (i.e., "lockbox") test set of 20% of the sample. Key predictive variables were neuropsychological test performance at baseline, socioeconomic status, screen media activity, psychopathology, parenting, and personality. However, models using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain variables did not reliably predict DRD in either the cross-validation or held-out test set. These results suggest a combination of questionnaire/task variables as antecedents of excessive DRD in late childhood, which may presage the development of problematic substance use in adolescence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).