Theoretical analysis of a fractional-order nipah virus transmission system with sensitivity and cost-effectiveness analysis
Snehasis Barman, Soovoojeet Jana, Suvankar Majee, T. K. Kar
Abstract
Abstract Nipah virus is a newly discovered infectious illness in a crowded world. It has a deadly impact on both the human and animal populations. Controlling the disease will need a deeper understanding of the route of transmission. To better explain how the illness behaves, an epidemic system consisting of eight separate compartments has been devised based on the actual Requirement, which uses a set of fractional-order differential equations. With the assistance of the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction numbers for humans ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> ) and animals ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>a</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> ) are determined. Depending upon the numerical quantity of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mo>,</mml:mo> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>a</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> , the feasibility and existence requirements of the system at the equilibria are investigated. Also, we observe that the system displays two transcritical bifurcations: one occurs at <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>a</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:math> for any value of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> and the second one occurs at <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:math> for <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-calligraphic" mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>a</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mo><</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:math> . Additionally, we looked at optimal control strategies by considering treatment and media as two dynamic control variables. Two ratios are computed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of all feasible control measures: the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and the infected averted ratio. Moreover, the impact of system parameters on disease transmission is determined by performing the sensitivity analysis.