Air Temperature Extremes in the Mediterranean Region (1940–2024): Synoptic Patterns and Trends
George Kotsias, Christos J. Lolis
Abstract
Extreme air temperatures along with the synoptic conditions leading to their appearance are examined for the Mediterranean region for the 85-year period of 1940–2024. The data used are daily (04UTC and 12UTC) grid point (1° × 1°) values of 2 m air temperature, 850 hPa air temperature, and 1000 hPa and 500 hPa geopotential heights, obtained from the ERA5 database. For 12UTC and 04UTC, the 2 m air temperature anomalies are calculated and are used for the definition of Extremely High Temperature Days (EHTDs) and Extremely Low Temperature Days (ELTDs), respectively. Overall, 3787 EHTDs and 4872 ELTDs are defined. It is found that EHTDs are evidently more frequent in recent years (increased by 305% since the 1980s) whereas ELTDs are less frequent (decreased by 41% since the 1980s), providing a clear sign of warming of the Mediterranean climate. A multivariate statistical analysis combining factor analysis and k-means clustering, known as spectral clustering, is applied to the data resulting in the definition of nine EHTD and seven ELTD clusters. EHTDs are mainly associated with intense solar heating, blocking anticyclones and warm air advection. ELTDs are connected to intense radiative cooling of the Earth’s surface, cold air advection and Arctic outbreaks. This is a unique study for the Mediterranean region utilizing the high-resolution ERA5 data collected since the 1940s to define and investigate the variability of both high and low temperature extremes using a validated methodology.