Assessing Waste Management Using Machine Learning Forecasting for Sustainable Development Goal Driven

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of waste is essential for effective management and allocation of resources. As urban populations grow, the demand for municipal waste systems increases, creating the need for reliable forecasting methods to support planning and decision making. This study compares statistical models Error Trend Seasonality (ETS) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with advanced machine learning approaches, including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Five waste categories were analyzed: dead animal, building, commercial, domestic, and liquid waste. Historical datasets were used for model training and validation, with accuracy assessed through mean absolute error and root mean squared error. Results indicate that ARIMA generally outperforms ETS in forecasting building, commercial, and domestic waste streams, especially in capturing long-term domestic waste patterns. Both statistical models, however, show limitations in predicting liquid waste due to its irregular and highly variable nature, where even baseline models sometimes perform competitively. In contrast, machine learning methods consistently achieve the lowest forecasting errors across all categories. Their capacity to capture nonlinear relationships and adapt to complex datasets highlights their reliability for real-world waste management. The findings underline the importance of selecting forecasting techniques tailored to the characteristics of each waste type rather than applying a uniform method. By improving forecasting accuracy, municipalities and policymakers can design more effective waste management strategies that align with Sustainable Development Goal 11 on sustainable cities and communities, Sustainable Development Goal 12 on responsible consumption and production, and Sustainable Development Goal 13 on climate action.

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