Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020
Carl A. B. Pearson, Cari van Schalkwyk, Anna M. Foss, Kathleen O’Reilly, SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Juliet RC Pulliam
Abstract
For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Coronavirus InfectionsGeographyPandemicDemographyPsychological interventionBetacoronavirusMedicineVirologyOutbreakInfectious disease (medical specialty)Internal medicinePsychiatrySociologyDiseaseCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsViral Infections and Outbreaks Research