Trends and drivers of anthropogenic NO emissions in China since 2020
Hui Lĭ, Bo Zheng, Yu Lei, Didier Hauglustaine, Cuihong Chen, Xin Lin, Yi Zhang, Qiang Zhang, Kebin He
Abstract
Nitrogen oxides (NO x ), significant contributors to air pollution and climate change, form aerosols and ozone in the atmosphere. Accurate, timely, and transparent information on NO x emissions is essential for decision-making to mitigate both haze and ozone pollution. However, a comprehensive understanding of the trends and drivers behind anthropogenic NO x emissions from China—the world's largest emitter—has been lacking since 2020 due to delays in emissions reporting. Here we show a consistent decline in China's NO x emissions from 2020 to 2022, despite increased fossil fuel consumption, utilizing satellite observations as constraints for NO x emission estimates through atmospheric inversion. This reduction is corroborated by data from two independent spaceborne instruments: the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Notably, a reduction in transport emissions, largely due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, slightly decreased China's NO x emissions in 2020. In subsequent years, 2021 and 2022, reductions in NO x emissions were driven by the industry and transport sectors, influenced by stringent air pollution controls. The satellite-based inversion system developed in this study represents a significant advancement in the real-time monitoring of regional air pollution emissions from space. • We integrate top-down inversion with bottom-up information to infer NO x emissions. • China's monthly and sectoral NO x emissions are estimated from 2020 to 2022. • China's NO x emissions have declined since 2020 despite increased fuel consumption. • Air pollution control led to widespread emission declines in 2021 and 2022.