A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect
Jan R. Magnus, Anatoly Peresetsky
Abstract
An explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artifact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. The model fits the data almost perfectly. JEL Classification: A22; C24; C91; D84; D91; I21.
Topics & Concepts
Artifact (error)Simple (philosophy)PsychologyBoundary (topology)Statistical analysisStatistical modelStatisticsEconometricsCognitive psychologyStatistical physicsMathematicsPhysicsEpistemologyMathematical analysisPhilosophyNeuroscienceNeuroscience and Music PerceptionMemory Processes and InfluencesVisual and Cognitive Learning Processes