Economic Analysis and Generic Algorithm for Optimizing the Investments Decision-Making Process in Oil Field Development
Cătălin Popescu, Sorin Alexandru Gheorghiu
Abstract
Due to the substantial amounts of money involved and the complex interactions of a number of different factors, managers of oil and gas companies are faced with significant challenges when making investment decisions that will increase business efficiency and achieve competitive advantages, especially through cost control. Due to the various uncertainties of the current period, optimal investment strategies are difficult to determine. Thus, through an economic analysis that includes data analysis, quantitative risk analysis scenarios, modelling and simulations, a work framework, in the form of a generic algorithm, is proposed with the aim of generating a complex procedure for optimizing investment decisions in oil field development. A complex set of elements is considered in the analysis: costs (operational expenditures (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX), daily drilling rig costs), prices (oil, gas, separation and water injection preparation), production profiles, different types of taxes and discount factors. Above all, oil price volatility plays an essential role and creates uncertainty in relation to profitability and the strategic investment decisions made by oil exploration and production companies.