The 2018 Long Rainy Season in Kenya: Hydrological Changes and Correlated Land Subsidence
Ashraf Rateb, ElSayed Hermas
Abstract
The wettest 2018 long rainy season (March to May (MAM)) resulted in daily intensive rainfall events in East Africa that have seriously affected the environment and economy in many countries. Land subsidence is one of the environmental disasters that has occurred due to the long rainy season in Kenya for many years. However, it has received limited scientific attention. In this paper, we incorporate hydrological (soil moisture active–passive (SMAP) and loading models) and geodetic data (global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)) to study hydrological changes and their associated subsidence potential in Kenya. Results show that widespread subsidence of more than 20 mm was associated with the MAM season in Kenya during 2018, based on SBAS InSAR measurements. The high values of land subsidence were well correlated with the areas of intense flooding during the MAM season. The widespread subsidence during the wet season has implications for the stability of the earth’s surface during the season rather than creating the possibility of potential stresses along active faults. These stresses may trigger seismicity that is expected to pose risks to urban features. The results of the current study can help governmental authorities to adopt proper urban planning that avoids or minimizes the risks of land subsidence in the areas of sinkholes.