Tropical volcanic impacts on MENA climate via ENSO and NAO dynamics in a high-top model
Muhammad Mubashar Dogar, Shingo Watanabe, Masatomo Fujiwara, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Turki M. Habeebullah, Basit Khan
Abstract
Abstract Volcanic eruptions are among the strongest climate drivers, yet their regional impacts on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain poorly constrained. Post-eruption amplified winter cooling in MENA is often attributed to a volcanically forced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but the concurrent occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) complicates attribution. Furthermore, summer climatic responses, including tropical warming and mid-latitude cooling, remain underexplored. Here, we present a pioneering research using a high-top coupled climate model (MIROC6) to assess volcanic-induced ENSO–NAO interactions and their regional climate impacts. We demonstrate that volcanic-induced NAO variability is the primary driver of post-eruption MENA winter cooling, with El Niño acting as a modulator rather than a fundamental trigger. We further reveal distinct summer climate anomalies, including suppressed precipitation over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These findings underscore the importance of high-top models to resolve stratospheric influences on post-volcanic climate variability.