Macroeconomic impact of energy transition: A comparative study of developed and developing countries

Abstract

The global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy reflects a major structural transformation with diverse macroeconomic implications across countries. This study examines 118 developed and developing countries from 2012 to 2022 using a K-Means clustering approach. Seven indicators are employed in the analysis, including Human Development Index, Gross National Income per capita, carbon dioxide emissions intensity, renewable electricity share, foreign direct investment inflows, and net energy imports. The clustering process identifies nine distinct groups of countries that share similar structural characteristics related to energy and economic profiles. The results show that countries within the same income category may follow different transition paths, and some lower-income or structurally constrained countries have achieved substantial renewable electricity penetration. Differences among clusters are observed in renewable energy shares, emissions profiles, energy trade status, and investment patterns. The findings do not suggest simple associations between development level and energy transition outcomes but highlight the diversity of structural conditions shaping national trajectories. By generating a comparative typology of countries based on structural features rather than income groupings, the study supports more context-specific approaches to energy transition planning. The results contribute to the broader understanding of global sustainability transitions and macroeconomic diversity. • K-Means clusters 118 countries by economic, environmental, and energy indicators. • Renewable energy development isn’t directly linked to HDI or GNI levels. • Energy importers have higher renewable shares than energy exporters. • High FDI ratios don’t always boost renewable energy development. • Policies and resources shape renewable adoption more than development levels.

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