Interpretable prediction of acute ischemic stroke after hip fracture in patients 65 years and older based on machine learning and SHAP

Abstract

• The most influential factor for prediction of acute ischemic stroke after hip fracture in patients 65 years and older is SIRI. • The model using machine learning algorithm displays good performance for prediction of acute ischemic stroke after hip fracture in patients 65 years and older. • The SHapley Additive exPlanations method is utilized to provide both local and global explanations of the model. Hip fracture and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) are prevalent conditions among the older population. The prognosis for older patients who experience AIS subsequent to hip fracture is frequently unfavorable. Patients were categorized into the AIS group and the non-AIS group. A predictive model was developed using six different machine learning algorithms. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was then utilized to provide both local and global explanations. We performed adjusted mediation analyses. Furthermore, a nomogram was created to present the outcomes obtained from the LASSO regression examination. The main objective was to ascertain influential elements that can predict the occurrence of AIS. To alleviate the influence of confounding variables, propensity score matching was utilized to compare the occurrence of additional complications. Survival was compared by Kaplan-Meier methods. The AUC of 6 ML models ranged from 0.73 to 0.87. The SVM model exhibited the greatest efficacy in forecasting AIS among older individuals with hip fractures. The leading 6 variables in the support vector machines (SVM) model were identified as systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), carotid atherosclerosis, prior stroke, C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen (FIB), and hypertension. The leading 2 variables in SHAP were identified as FIB at admission and SIRI index. There wasn't potential mediating effect of admission FIB between the SIRI index and AIS. There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in survival (P=0.003). The model displayed good performance for prediction of AIS after hip fracture in patients 65 years and older, which might facilitate to establishment of a better clinical assessment plan.

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