Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
Malcolm Roberts, Joanne Camp, Jon Seddon, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges, Benoît Vannière, Jennifer Mecking, Rein Haarsma, Alessio Bellucci, Enrico Scoccimarro, Louis‐Philippe Caron, Fabrice Chauvin, Laurent Terray, Sophie Valcke, Marie‐Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Colin M. Zarzycki, Paul Ullrich, Yohei Yamada, Ryo Mizuta, Chihiro Kodama, Dan Fu, Qiuying Zhang, Gökhan Danabasoglu, Nan Rosenbloom, Hong Wang, Lixin Wu
Abstract
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.