RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions
Christopher R. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, Philip B. Duffy
Abstract
Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO 2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO 2 emissions in 2100.
Topics & Concepts
Futures contractRepresentative Concentration PathwaysEnvironmental scienceRange (aeronautics)Climate changeClimate modelClimate policyFossil fuelGreenhouse gasNatural resource economicsCumulative effectsClimatologyAtmospheric sciencesEconomicsGeologyChemistryEngineeringEcologyFinancial economicsAerospace engineeringBiologyOrganic chemistryOceanographyAtmospheric and Environmental Gas DynamicsClimate Change Policy and EconomicsClimate variability and models