The Role of Health Preconditions on COVID-19 Deaths in Portugal: Evidence from Surveillance Data of the First 20293 Infection Cases
Paulo Nogueira, Miguel de Araújo Nobre, Andreia Costa, Ruy M. Ribeiro, Cristina Furtado, Leonor Bacelar–Nicolau, Catarina Camarinha, Márcia Luís, Ricardo Abrantes, António Vaz Carneiro
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is essential to study the effect of potential co-factors on the risk of death in patients infected by COVID-19. The identification of risk factors is important to allow more efficient public health and health services strategic interventions with a significant impact on deaths by COVID-19. This study aimed to identify factors associated with COVID-19 deaths in Portugal. METHODS: A national dataset with the first 20,293 patients infected with COVID-19 between 1 January and 21 April 2020 was analyzed. The primary outcome measure was mortality by COVID-19, measured (registered and confirmed) by Medical Doctors serving as health delegates on the daily death registry. A logistic regression model using a generalized linear model was used for estimating Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each potential risk indicator. RESULTS: A total of 502 infected patients died of COVID-19. The risk factors for increased odds of death by COVID-19 were: sex (male: OR = 1.47, ref = female), age ((56-60) years, OR = 6.01; (61-65) years, OR = 10.5; (66-70) years, OR = 20.4; (71-75) years, OR = 34; (76-80) years, OR = 50.9; (81-85) years, OR = 70.7; (86-90) years, OR = 83.2; (91-95) years, OR = 91.8; (96-104) years, OR = 140.2, ref = (0-55)), Cardiac disease (OR = 2.86), Kidney disorder (OR = 2.95), and Neuromuscular disorder (OR = 1.58), while condition (None (absence of precondition); OR = 0.49) was associated with a reduced chance of dying after adjusting for other variables of interest. CONCLUSIONS: Besides age and sex, preconditions justify the risk difference in mortality by COVID-19.