Scoring, selecting, and developing physical impact models for multi-hazard risk assessment
Roberto Gentile, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso, Luke T. Jenkins, Vibek Manandhar, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Ramesh Guragain, John McCloskey
Abstract
This study focuses on scoring, selecting, and developing physical fragility (i.e., the probability of reaching or exceeding a certain damage state given a specific hazard intensity) and/or vulnerability (i.e., the probability of impact - or consequence - given a specific hazard intensity) models for assets of interest, with particular emphasis on buildings. Given a set of multiple relevant hazards for a selected case-study region, the proposed procedure involves 1) mapping the relevant asset classes (i.e., construction types for a given occupancy) in the region to a set of existing candidate fragility, vulnerability and/or damage-to-impact models, also accounting for specific modelling requirements (e.g., time dependency due to ageing/deterioration, multi-hazard interactions); 2) scoring the candidate models according to relevant criteria to select the most suitable models for a given application; or 3) using state-of-the-art numerical or empirical methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available. The approach is demonstrated for the buildings of the virtual urban testbed “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.