Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February
Daniel Grint, Kevin Wing, Elizabeth Williamson, Helen McDonald, Krishnan Bhaskaran, David Evans, Stephen Evans, Alex J Walker, George Hickman, Emily Nightingale, Anna Schultze, Christopher T. Rentsch, Chris Bates, Jonathan Cockburn, Helen J Curtis, Caroline E Morton, Seb Bacon, Simon Davy, Angel YS Wong, Amir Mehrkar, Laurie A. Tomlinson, Ian Douglas, Rohini Mathur, Paula Blomquist, Brian MacKenna, Peter Ingelsby, Richard Croker, John Parry, Frank Hester, Sam Harper, Nicholas DeVito, William Hulme, John Tazare, Ben Goldacre, Liam Smeeth, Rosalind M. Eggo
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.