Digital Twin simulation models: a validation method based on machine learning and control charts
Carlos Henrique dos Santos, Afonso Teberga Campos, José Arnaldo Barra Montevechi, Rafael de Carvalho Miranda, Antônio Fernando Branco Costa
Abstract
The adoption of simulation models as Digital Twins (DTs) has been standing out in recent years and represents a revolution in decision-making. In this context, we note increasingly faster and more efficient decisions by mirroring the behaviour of physical systems. On the other hand, we highlight the challenges to ensure the simulation models validity over time since traditional validation approaches have limitations when we consider the periodic update of the model. Thus, the present work proposes an approach based on the constant assessment of these models through Machine Learning and control charts. To this end, we suggest a monitoring tool using the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) classifier, combined with a p-control chart, to periodically assess the validity of DT simulation models. The proposed approach was tested in several theoretical cases and also implemented in a real case study. The findings suggest that the proposed tool can monitor the DT functioning and identify possible special causes that could compromise its results. Finally, we highlight the wide applicability of the proposed tool, which can be used in different DT models, including near/real-time models with different characteristics regarding connection, integration, and complexity.